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Engels

A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion

Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftA1: Web of Science-artikelpeer review

  • Thomas Mortier
  • Jakub Truszkowski
  • Marigold Norman
  • Markus Boner
  • Caspar Chater
  • Henry Jennings
  • Jade Saunders
  • Rosie Sibley
  • Alexandre Antonelli
  • Willem Waegeman
  • Victor Deklerck
Scientific testing including stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) and trace element analysis (TEA) is critical for establishing plant origin, tackling deforestation and enforcing economic sanctions. Yet methods combining SIRA and TEA into robust models for origin verification and determination are lacking. Here we report a (1) large Eastern European timber reference database (Betula, Fagus, Pinus, Quercus) tailored to sanctioned products following the Ukraine invasion; (2) statistical test to verify samples against a claimed origin; (3) probabilistic model of SIRA, TEA and genus distribution data, using Gaussian processes, to determine timber harvest location. Our verification method rejects 40–60% of simulated false claims, depending on the spatial scale of the claim, and maintains a low probability of rejecting correct origin claims. Our determination method predicts harvest location within 180 to 230 km of true location. Our results showcase the power of combining data types with probabilistic modelling to identify and scrutinize timber harvest location claims.
Originele taal-2Engels
TijdschriftNature Plants
ISSN2055-0278
StatusGepubliceerd - 11-mrt.-2024
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